History and Probability of Dangerous Storms

 

•Major Hurricane = 111 mph, which is the minimum wind speed for a category 3 hurricane

 

•According to USA Today:

–Abaco has about a 10% chance of a major hurricane occurring within 75 miles in any given year and a 20% chance for any hurricane occurring

 

•Southeast Florida has only experienced 4 hurricanes of category 4 and above in the last 150 years Additionally, there have been  11 category 3 hurricanes in that same time period.

The following are charts that help estimate the probability of a major storm:

 

The most intense mainland United States hurricanes, 1851-2004 (includes only major hurricanes at their most intense landfall). Addendum for Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands.

Rank	Hurricane	Year	Category (at landfall)	Minimum Pressure (mb)	Minimum Pressure (in)
1	Unnamed (FL Keys)	1935	5	892	26.35
2	Camille (MS, SE LA, VA)	1969	5	909	26.84
3	Andrew (SE FL, SE LA)	1992	5	922	27.23
4	TX (Indianola)	1886	4	925	27.31
5	Unnamed (FL Keys, S TX)	1919	4	927	27.37
6	Unnamed (Lake Okeechobee FL)	1928	4	929	27.43
7	Donna (FL, Eastern U.S.)	1960	4	930	27.46
8	Unnamed (New Orleans LA)	1915	4	931	27.49
8	Carla (N & Cent. TX)	1961	4	931	27.49
10	LA (Last Island)	1856	4	934	27.58
10	Hugo (SC)	1989	4	934	27.58

Number of hurricanes by Saffir-Simpson Category to strike the mainland U.S. each decade. Decade Saffir-Simpson Category1 All 1,2,3,4,5 Major 3,4,5 1 2 3 4 5 1851-1860 8 5 5 1 0 19 6 1861-1870 8 6 1 0 0 15 1 1871-1880 7 6 7 0 0 20 7 1881-1890 8 9 4 1 0 22 5 1891-1900 8 5 5 3 0 21 8 1901-1910 10 4 4 0 0 18 4 1911-1920 10 4 4 3 0 21 7 1921-1930 5 3 3 2 0 13 5 1931-1940 4 7 6 1 1 19 8 1941-1950 8 6 9 1 0 24 10 1951-1960 8 1 5 3 0 17 8 1961-1970 3 5 4 1 1 14 6 1971-1980 6 2 4 0 0 12 4 1981-1990 9 1 4 1 0 15 5 1991-2000 3 6 4 0 1 14 5 2001-2004 4 2 2 1 0 9 3   1851-2004 109 72 71 18 3 273 92 Average Per Decade 7.1 4.7 4.6 1.2 0.2 17.7 6.0 1 Only the highest Saffir-Simpson Category to affect the U.S. has been used.